BEYOND THE NUMBERS GAME
To some it may appear as a numbers game. It is certainly about who controls the majority in the parliament, but there is more to it. We do not know what would be the outcome of it, but it is almost certain that if the PA goes into some agreement with the JVP, then there would be defections to the UNP from the PA that could again upset the power balance. As it is the PA has 109 members and the UNP led opposition can boast of 104 members excluding the JVP and the Sihala Urumaya. With the 10 JVP members either voting with the government or abstaining at crucial debates the government is in a position to defeat any no confidence motion provided that there are no defections from the PA to the opposition. However several MPs from the government, including at least two cabinet ministers are expected to join the UNP led opposition creating problems for the PA. Sihala Urumaya is not prepared to face a general election as it would certainly lose the single representation in the parliament it enjoys at present, at the next general election. It would vote with the UNP only if Mr. Ranil Wickremasinghe is in a position to form a government but even in that case as the president could dissolve the parliament after October the Sihala Urumaya MP would think not twice but many more times even if the upper middle class Vihara Maha Devis in the party would want him to vote against the government. This could split the Sihala Urumaya into the upper middle class Vihara Maha Devis and the lower middle class youth. The UNP led opposition could be expected to have 104 MPs without any defections. However it is speculated that 5 or 6 MPs from the PA would cross over to the UNP making it 103 for the PA (on the assumption that 6 MPs would cross over from the PA to the UNP), 110 for the UNP, 10 for the JVP and 1 for Sihala Urumaya. This means that in such an eventuality, unless the JVP votes with the PA, the government would be defeated at a no confidence motion debate.
The Sihala Urumaya youth leaders are competing with the JVP for the votes of the Sinhala youth with a nationalistic mind. The upper middle class and the expatriates especially in UK. Australia who support Sihala Urumaya would not know how important it is for the Sihala Urumaya not to vote with the UNP, when the JVP has taken a stand not to do so at least in the immediate future. With Sihala Urumaya not wanting a general election right now it would make extremely difficult for them to vote with UNP. With the formation of a "probationary" government, the Jathika Vyaparaya (national movement) that has its share of infiltrators from the non national forces will go through a testing period exposing the infiltrators. During the last six years or so many people have joined the Jathika Vyaparaya not because they were interested in winning the rightful place for the Sinhala language, Sinhala history, Sinhala culture and Sinhalathva in general, but were concerned with defeating the PA government. A number of organisations such as the Deshanuragi Sanvidhanaya, mushroomed during this period but they are not to be seen in the Jathika Vyaparaya now. The infiltrators were so strong at one time that they were able to manipulate some leaders of the Jathika Vyaparaya and chase out some of the pioneers who were involved with the Sinhala Commission from important bodies. The situation is not that different today and we could see institutions created by Anagarika Dharmapala being manipulated by elements belonging to the non national forces.
What is taking place behind this numbers game that everybody could see, is the struggle between the national forces and the non national forces. The SLFP which celebrated 50 years of existence last Sunday has been the party of Sinhalathva since 1955. However as we have pointed on a number of occasions through these columns, the leadership of the party has not been able to evolve a nationalist ideology during this period. Though Mr. Bandaranaike who formed the Sinhala Maha Sabha way back in the thirties would have felt intuitively the significance of Sinhalthva he could not formulate a nationalist ideology. However, Mr. Bandaranaike cannot be blamed for this state of affairs as the intellectuals during this period, except for Mr. Martin Wickremasinghe and Mr. Munidasa Cumaratunga and may be a few others did not have a clue towards evolving a nationalist ideology. They were interested in interpreting Buddhism as a pragmatism, empiricism, rationalism, phenomenalism, as the case may be depending on their philosophical sympathies, to the western intellectuals and imitating the western theories and concepts blindly, in their respective fields. Even Messrs. Wickremasinghe and Cumaratunga had not formulated a nationalist ideology (please note that nationalist ideology is not Jathika Chinthanaya- a nationalist ideology has to be worked out in a Jathika Chinthanaya, just as much modern western knowledge is created in the Judaic Chinthanaya - Amarasekera's chinthanaya is a deeper concept than Kuhn's paradigm or Foucault's episteme and should not be translated as thought or ideology) and with respect to western science, including not only the so called natural sciences such as Physics, Chemistry and Biology but also the social sciences such as Sociology and Anthropology, they did not have a correct perspective.
Mr. Bandaranaike remained a western liberal to the end of his life and the SLFP leadership has being guided by liberalism and Marxism during the last fifty years. This is one of the major contradictions in the politics of the country, the party of the Sinhalathva and the social justice being guided by western liberalism and Marxism. The JVP, essentially the party of the politically conscious children of fifty six (panas haye daruwo) has been guided by Marxism since its inception in the late sixties. Though the supporters, sympathisers of these two parties are nationally minded the leaders have been followers of western liberalism and Marxism. The relationship between these two parties until about a month ago has been not healthy to say the least. It was not that between parents and children (grown up or otherwise) and they have been at each other's throat on most occasions. The JVP thought of the SLFP as a party that has to be defeated so that it could become the sole spokesman of the "left", effectively the national forces, before it took on the UNP, the party of the non national forces. This is not very different from the LTTE becoming the spokesman of the Tamils by wiping out the leadership of the TULF. However the Sinhala society has reacted differently and today it is encouraging to see the JVP supporting the SLFP (and the PA) to form even a so-called probationary government. Though people may neither recognise nor acknowledge, the role played by the Jathika Chinthanaya in bringing together the SLFP and the JVP should not be underestimated.
We do not know how long this "alliance" between the SLFP and the JVP would last, but it augurs well for the future of the country. Though the leaders of the two parties, who are still guided by western liberalism and Marxism, may not think so the "alliance" brings together the national forces in the country. The non national forces will do everything possible to topple the "probationary" government and bring back the UNP, the main party of the non national forces. The "probationary" government is something that they would never have dreamt of and the condition put forward by the JVP to the effect that there should not be any talks with the LTTE would not be to the liking of the western powers and Tamil racism. It is possible that Prabhakaran would escalate his attacks with the western powers turning a blind eye (or shall I say an imperialist Nelsonian eye) to them. We could expect the business community to react unfavorably to the "probationary" government and the imperialist policies of the western powers would become naked. (In this connection Mr. W. D. Soysa's article in "The Island" on the 3rd September should be an eye opener.). It would be interesting to see the attitude of "Veera Vidhana" to the "probationary" government.
The non national forces in 1994 supported Ms. Chandrka Bandaranaike thinking that the aspirations of Tamil racism could be satisfied through a SLFP led coalition, under the leadership of a pink socialist educated in a convent in Colombo and a university in Paris. It was in effect hijacking the party of the Sinhalthva and social justice to deliver the goods to Tamil racism. However, the strategy failed and the non national forces including the western powers were thinking of an alliance between the UNP and the SLFP (PA) as a stop gap to start talks with the LTTE, before the UNP the party of the non national forces was brought back to power to establish a confederation. The non national forces have no interest in a SLFP led coalition and we predicted long ago as far back as in 1994, that if the PA fails to satisfy Tamil racism they would be kicked out. The non national forces in 1994 supported the PA for one and only one reason, namely to establish a federal state through the so-called package. The mission of the "intellectuals" and others who were sent to the SLFP in 1994, to draft a new constitution is over and it is time for them to go back home to the fold of the UNP, a mission unaccomplished.
One last word about those who are thinking of defecting the SLFP to join the UNP. It is very clear from past experience that, in general, they would not be treated well, though they would be promised so many things before they cross over. I do not want to mention names but the plight of some of the SLFP leaders who joined the UNP could be studied in this connection. Only those who have been "traditionally" with the UNP would be given a warm welcome and the others, if they defect, would only ruin their political careers.
Professor Nalin de Silva
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