THE STRATEGY OF THE GOVERNMENT
As far as the government is concerned there is a strategy. One might think that it is a strategy that would be adopted at the so-called peace talks that have already started. However the government has only one objective. It is nothing but its survival. Both the UNP and the SLFP have one thing in common. Their objectives are the same. Both parties when in opposition want to come to power and when they are elected to "govern" the country they are interested only in survival. I know that I am not the first person to state this obvious fact but in order to understand what is happening today it is important to remember this basic fact in Sri Lankan politics, which is not much different from the politics in the sub continent.
In this column we have argued that neither the UNF nor the PA has the power. The people have not given either party the political power and each party is trying to gain power at any cost. One could question as to whether the people could give any one of the parties the political power when they themselves do not have that power. The political power in Sri Lanka is not with the people but with the ambassadors and high commissioners of the western countries and India. The people have the power to elect a party that would be dictated by these worthy diplomats living in Colombo. The government could survive only by pleasing the west and India. As long as the western countries and India have differences we have a marginal relative freedom but when they agree we do not have any freedom at all. It is not because the country is small. It is due to the fact that our so-called leaders, who are the "leaders" appointed by the British and the other westerners are small not in Physical appearance but in their mental attitudes. They think small and talk big.
Both the UNF and the PA are talking of the dissolution of the parliament. I do not think many MPs who were elected just nine months ago are keen to go before the people. The politics is an investment and nine months is too short a period to get the dividends for the investment. They would prefer to remain as MPs for some more time. Only those who lost last time would be longing to go before the people again. In any event neither party wants to dissolve the parliament nor do they have the power to do so. Therefore, in spite of talks on dissolution both parties try to capture power by "capturing" MPs. A two third majority is desired and unfortunately for the PA they do not have the resources to "capture" MPs. When the people do not have the power even two third majorities are decided by the others and the people can only watch the scene from a distant. It is not participatory politics but watching politics and is not very much different from watching cricket and teledrama from a distant using the television medium. No wonder that people like to watch so called political discussions and programmes involving speeches and statements issued by the "leaders".
The last PA government fell when Mr. Hakeem decided to join the opposition. It is true that Ms. Kumaratunga sacked Mr. Hakeem before he sent his letter of resignation. But by that time those with power had decided that the PA government had to go. The UNP that opposed the PA package, one of whose architects was Dr. G. L. Peiris, had an understanding not only with the LTTE but with Dr. Peiris himself as well. The so-called Ali koti givisuma goes much beyond the PA package and what the UNP(F) wants now is to legalise what had been promised under the Ali koti givisuma. The government could survive only if the promises are fulfilled and as the west would like it to be constitutional they need a two third majority.
The talks between the government and the LTTE have already begun. Mr. Moragoda is the minister entrusted by the Prime Minister Mr. Wickremesinghe, and he did not meet Anton Balasingham merely as a "peace lover". Mr. Moragoda represents the government and the LTTE is represented by Balasingham. They have the blessings of the white house and Norway is only the agent of the USA. The talks in Thailand, if they take place, would be only a continuation of the talks between Mr. Moragoda and Anton Balasingham.
We do not know what they are talking now. Even the cabinet of minsters probably is not aware of what is happening. Only Messrs. Wickremesinghe and Moragoda must be knowing of what is happening exactly. Dr. G. L. Peiris who has been reduced to a mere spokesperson for the government would tell us what the ambassadors and the high commissioners would want us to know.
We have taken up the position that there is nothing to talk with the LTTE as the whole problem of Tamil racism is based on lies and nothing but lies. It is interesting to note that some who were supposed to be writing on behalf of the Sinhalas, gradually moving to a stand in favour of talks with the LTTE. These are the most dangerous people and we had our suspicions of these Trojan horses from the very beginning. The Tamil racists only have an aspiration to deny Sinhalathva its rightful place in the country. However, both the UNF and the PA leaders tell us that there are injustices to the Tamils and a solution has to be found in order to eliminate these injustices. What these ladies and gentlemen do not tell us is that if there are injustices to the Tamils, how a solution to that problem could be found only by "devolving" power to the North and the East. The majority of the Tamils are found outside those two provinces and it is clear that the so-called injustices of the Tamils in the other seven provinces would not be solved by "devolving" power to the North and the East.
In any event the LTTE is not interested in talks on what are now called "core issues". They want to talk on the "interim administration" which Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe says is constitutional. They want the ban to be lifted and now the government has agreed to that as well. Not all "interim administrations" would be constitutional and it all depends on the powers that the so called interim administration would be vested with. At present the government is bound by the thirteenth amendment and the provincial councils. The north and the east are two separate provinces that were amalgamated temporarily by a gazette notification. The President has the powers to dissolve this union that was imposed on us by the Indo Lanka Accord that is not valid now. However, it is unlikely that the former leader of the Sri Lanka Mahajana Party would do so.
The government wants to survive. The PA wants to capture power. When the people have been reduced to mere spectators thanks to the electronic media, for survival and to capture power the UNF and the PA have to please the ambassadors and the high commissioners. It is unfortunate that it is four or five diplomats who would determine the future of the country. It all depends on what the new Indian high commissioner and India think about the situation.
The LTTE wants an "interim administration" with or without the approval of the parliament. Whether the parliament approves it or not the LTTE knows that once an "interim administration" is given to them it is only a matter of time before an Eelam is established. However, as it is not a legal "administration" the west would have problems vis a vis India. The west would like a more formal hand over of the north and the east to the Tamil racists, approved by the parliament. The government could survive only by conceding to this demand. If the UNF does not agree the PA sans the MEP would agree to it provided if and when they are installed in power. However, it is a big if and the JVP could upset the plans of the "leaders" of the PA. In order to survive, the government is trying to "capture" MPs while the PA is also trying to capture power through the "capture" of MPs. The MPs are in great demand now and in turn their demands have also increased. As it is the UNP(F) that have the resources to meet the demands of the MPs, it is very unlikely that all those coups by the PA, discussed in the media, would succeed. However, this does not mean that the UNP would succeed in their attempt to obtain a two third majority in the parliament and the "interim administration" would become constitutional.
The nationalists should not talk of talks and make use of the opportunity to identify the Trojan horses in the process. These Trojan horses would start talking of agendas and other legalities of the so-called peace talks. The nationalists should forget about the agendas and try to defeat the installation of the "interim administration." The so-called interim administration, with or without the approval of the parliament, would pave the way for an Eelam. As the government and the west are interested in making the "interim administration" constitutional the nationalists have to canvass the support of the MPs to see that a two third majority is not given to the UNF.
Some contradictions are bound to crop up sooner or later between the government and the LTTE. The government has already conceded a central bank, an inland revenue department, banks, a sea route, a police force, an army, a navy to the LTTE terrorists. The LTTE is backed by the west and the government is forced by the west to concede all these demands to the LTTE. Mr. Moragoda who is a new comer to politics, would one day be forced to go back to the cyber space from where he came. There are no golden brains in Sri Lankan politics. All those who have had postgraduate qualifications have failed and the accountants are no better.
The PA in the meantime, with the JVP should realise that they are not backed by the west anymore and that they have only one way to come back to power. Their strategy should be to go back to the SLFP of 1955 and get the people, who are merely spectators now, involved in politics. If they try to be a carbon copy of the UNP competing for the eye of the high commissioners and the ambassadors the people would turn a blind eye to them.
Professor Nalin de Silva
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