THE FACTS AND FIGURES OF LOAN TALKS
It is increasingly becoming clear that the so called aid talks in Tokyo was a big farce. It was mainly a loan that was given, and the per capita debt of the country has gone up as a result of the loan. Mr. Bandula Gunawardhane through the so called News Station programme in the "Asathyavahini" made a futile attempt to show that the previous government of which he was a fellow MP, though not a minister cabinet or otherwise, had also taken loans and hence there was nothing wrong in obtaining the present loan. He went on to say that the present loan is given by the so called donor countries since the economic management of the UNF government is good.
One doesn't have to be an ex economics teacher of the AL students to know that these loans are political loans and not economic loans. If the so called donors stopped the payment of the loan to the previous government it was due to political factors and not due to economic factors. The "donors" had decided to bring down the PA government and they had only acted accordingly. At present the "donors" have faith in the UNF government and want this government in power for another three years at least. The promise of a loan for the next three years reflects this faith and the expectation. If Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga and the rest of the PA and the JVP are thinking of toppling of the government within the course of the year then they have to think of their strategy and tactics very carefully.
It is no secret that the envoy of Mr. Bush, the village headman of the global village, is not happy with the SLFP - JVP talks and that he prefers the Sri Lankan Communists and the Trotskyites to the "nationalist" JVP. Most probably he knows that the classification into the capitalists and the socialists (or the capitalist class and the working class) is not relevant and what is important to American hegemony not only in Politics but also in Economics and Culture is the division into the nationalist and the non nationalist "classes". He prefers not only the very old left but the so called fire brands, Vasudeva Nanayakkara and Vickramabahu Karunarathne who were young in the "revolutionary" sixties (Cuba, Lumumba's Congo, Vietnam, Czechoslovakia, Paris barricades etc.) but who are now in their sixties. Relative to the JVP these two comrades also now belong to the old left, though not the very old left, in more than one way.
If the President dissolves the parliament and the PA- JVP comes to power at the general elections held subsequently or if the President manages to get the numbers and appoint a new government with a new prime minister it is very likely that the so called aid would be stopped, obviously referring to economic mismanagement, and the new government would have a difficult time. It is always better to educate the masses and prepare them for any eventuality before taking any action to form a new government.
Coming back to the loan itself various media have given various figures on the loan that has been promised for the next three years. While there is general agreement over the figure Rs. 4.5 billion what is not clear is the amount that has been decided for the so called development in the northern and the eastern provinces. Lanka, weekend newspaper quoted a figure of Rs. 2.8 billion for the northern and the eastern provinces and a figure of Rs. 1.7 billion for the rest of the country. It is not clear whether the sum of Rs. 2.8 billion is to be given to the LTTE after an interim administration is set up for the "development" of the northern and the eastern provinces. Also it is not known whether this money would be given to the government in the first instance and then to the LTTE, on condition that the LTTE participate in the so called peace talks.
Another point that has to be looked into is the amount of the loan that would have been given by the donor countries under "normal" circumstances. It is said that in the days when Mr. Ronnie de Mel was the Minister of Finance, Sri Lanka was able to negotiate a loan amounting to Rs. 800 million. For three years it works out to about Rs. 2.4 billion and if we were to assume that at least seven ninths of the money was allocated for the seven provinces other than the northern and the eastern provinces we get a figure of about 1.86 for the "rest of the country". When compared with the Rs. 1.7 billion allocated for the seven provinces other than the northern and the eastern provinces, in Tokyo, it is clear that the "rest of the country" is getting less in the next three years.
The Tokyo loan talks was mainly in respect of the northern and the eastern provinces and that was the reason for the interest generated with respect to the LTTE. Prabhakaran and the gang decided to keep away from the talks but what would have happened had they decided to participate. What would have Mr. Armitage, in whose country the LTTE is a banned terrorist organisation, done under those circumstances. Could India have participated if the LTTE was present? Even without participation the LTTE has been allocated Rs. 2.8 billion for the "development of the northern and the eastern provinces". A pundit would say that money has been allocated not for the LTTE but for the two provinces. However, it is said that the allocation of the money is subject to the condition that the LTTE take part in the "peace talks".
It is only the state department and the other western powers that know what is in the script for this entire "nadagama". Was the LTTE asked to boycott the Tokyo "loan talks" in order that Armitage and India could participate? In any event the presence of the LTTE at the loan talks was not that important as most of the money had already been allocated. As has been said earlier these are political and not economic decisions and the LTTE could afford to boycott the Tokyo "loan talks" on some pretext or the other. The LTTE took up the most political of the political issues in order to justify the boycott. They blamed the "government of Sri Lanka" for not conceding to their demand of an interim administration for the northern and the eastern provinces, solely for themselves and outside the constitution.
Now the situation is somewhat like the following. The northern and the eastern provinces have been allocated Rs. 2.8 billion for the next three years for the so called developmental works. However, this money would not be given if the so called peace talks fail. The "peace talks", unlike the loan talks in Tokyo could recommence only if the LTTE comes back to the "negotiating table", where ever the table would be set up. The LTTE would take part in the "peace talks" only if an interim administration is given for the northern and the eastern provinces, solely for themselves and outside the constitution. In any event "peace is a must" and the LTTE has to be brought to the so called democratic stream. In the meantime the LTTE is allowed to prepare for the "war" while the Sri Lankan army is been gradually demoralised. The MoU signed last year by Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe and Prabhakaran under the patronage of Westborg and the Vikings, has given the LTTE the opportunity to kill as many as their political opponents among the Tamils and the Tamil agents in the intelligence unit of the army. On top of that the LTTE wants their "sea tigers" to be recognised as another navy and demands that a naval zone is recognised for them.
The Norwegians under the instructions of the state department of the USA are "supervising" over the events to make sure that everything happens according to the script. The next step would be to convince the "people" that an interim administration should be given solely to the LTTE in respect of the northern and the eastern provinces. Already the NGOs financed by the western Christian countries and some influential Sinhala Catholics have started a campaign on behalf of the LTTE. Some retired public servants who are merely the spokesmen for the church are in the forefront of this campaign. The irony is that while Mr. Anandasangaree a Tamil Hindu and the present leader of the TULF is opposed to an interim administration given solely to the LTTE, some Sinhala Catholics and Christians together with NGO Sinhala Buddhists campaign for an interim administration.
The so called government of Sri Lanka would be eventually forced to give in to the LTTE demand for an interim administration, which is nothing but a stepping stone for an Eelam. The west, contrary to their rhetoric against an Eelam wants an East Timor type solution for Sri Lanka. A separate East Timor was given to the Catholics in that country and the west wants a Catholic/Christian ideological organisation like the LTTE to establish an Eelam in the northern and the eastern provinces. If East Timor was established against a Muslim Indonesia an Eelam would be established against a Hindu India more than against a Sinhala Buddhist Sri Lanka. As we have said in these columns the present Indian government being a coalition is not the strongest of governments that India has had in the last fifty years or so, and it is hoped that the Indian leaders understand what is happening just a few miles across the Palk strait.
If the President tries to use her executive powers to "topple the government" it is very likely that the west would interfere to prevent her from taking such action. They could always use the "aid carrot" and say that the "aid" promised in Tokyo would not be released. They could even take other drastic measures such as imposing an embargo for toppling a government undemocratically. They would not take any action against the LTTE that could not be considered a democratic organisation by any stretch of imagination. The President and the PA- JVP have only one option under these circumstances. They would have to tell the truth to the people and prepare them for any eventuality if and when the west decides to oppose the President. However, it is the west that has more options. They could "convince" the President that some kind of interim administration is necessary to begin with and then gradually work towards the interim administration that they want. We must remember that it was the President who talked about interim administration first and that it was her who "invited" the Vikings to this country. Would the JVP and the national forces be able to stand up to the pressure from the west? It is not an impossibility if we understand what is in store for the country.
Professor Nalin de Silva
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