SINHALA NATIONALISM COMES OF AGE
The PA -JVP alliance, or the alliance as it is popularly known, has won the 2004 General Elections and by the time this column appears in print they would have formed a new government. This is a clear rejection of the policies of the Ranil Wickremesinghe government that ruled the country for more than two years. The infamous MoU signed by Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe with the terrorist leader Prabhakaran, under the sponsorship of the so-called international community represented by Norway, has been rejected by the majority of the Sinhala people. This also means a refusal by the Sinhala Majority to accept the conditions as laid down by Prabhakaran on an interim government. The so-called political scientists who have not come out with a single original concept in their life time would like to tell the world that hereafter no government would be able to ignore the interim proposals by the LTTE (and Norway and the "international community".) However, in making such pronouncements they continue to ignore the opinion of the majority of the Sinhala people. The Sinhala people (meaning of course the majority) have rejected these proposals together with the people who advocated them. The Sinhala majority was disgusted and disappointed with the so called peace process that went behind closed doors in various cities in the world. As a consequence they have also rejected the role of the Norwegians and other members of the "international community" who blatantly supported the Tamil terrorists.
The Sinhala Buddhists have owerwhelmely voted for the alliance. The fielding of Bhikkus under the banner of the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) by the non national forces have boomeranged on the UNP. The JHU consists of two groups. A group of monks who were not involved in any nationalist movement until the death of Ven. Soma Thera but who were used by the UNP and the non national forces to demean the Sangha, and alienate the Sangha from the lay people and probably to attract some voters who would have voted for the alliance. (It had been estimated by the think tank of the UNP, based on surveys conducted using youth including university students, that for every three votes that the UNP would lose to the monks the PA-JVP alliance would have lost eight votes.) These monks who had been popular as Dharmadeshakas were instrumental in talking to the Sihala Urumaya on the need of Monks contesting the elections. As revealed in the interviews carried out with these monks by the Irida Divaina the Sihala Urumaya had not been in favour of the idea initially. However some of the power hungry and opportunistic politicians in the Sihala Urumaya saw the opening that had been created by the death of Soma Thera and finally decided to "offer" the party to some of the Bhikkus to contest the elections. This was not a "pooja" to the Bhikkus according to the Sinhala Buddhist tradition in general. The party was "offered" not to the Bhikku Sangha in general but to a selected group of monks who had been organised under the Jathika Bhikshu Sammelanya. The Sihala Urumaya was renamed as Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU). The lay people are the office bearers of the party with the so called Uththareethara Sabha having no official status in the eyes of the commissioner of elections. The SU that had not stood for a Sinhala Buddhist state before the death of Soma Thera, under the new name JHU immediately became heirs to the policies of the Bhoomiputhra party. The Sihala Urumaya had got the help of monks such as Ven. Ellawala Medhananda Thera, of the Jathika Bhikshu Sammelanaya that acted as a front organisation of the Sinhala Urumaya. These monks who had initially opposed the idea to contest the elections, were finally "converted" to the politics of the Dharmadeshaka Monks. The Uththareethara Sangha Sabha of the JHU was launched with the help of these two groups of monks. The Dharmadeshaka Monks had been trying to reach the masses for about five years through various organisations that had been formed especially for that purpose. They had been successful in the urban areas where most of those who could be termed as the "Olcott Buddhists" lived.
However, at the elections it is clear from an analysis of the voting patterns that the JHU monks had got most of the votes from the UNP. Though the UNP would have anticipated a certain fraction of their supporters to vote for the JHU they would not have expected so much of them to defect the UNP. If not for the JHU the UNP would have won a few more seats! The two factions within the JHU are bound to fight with each other and it is only a matter of time before at least a few lay people return to the parliament representing the JHU.
The voting patterns indicate the thinking of the Sinhala people. There are roughly three categories among the Sinhala people. The three categories could be identified as the Sinhala Buddhists, the Olcott Buddhists and the Sinhala Christians (including the Catholics). The Sinhala Christians in general (there are always exceptions) have not voted for the Bhikkus as demonstrated by the results of the Negombo polling division. (In this type of analysis the extreme cases are helpful.) The Sinhala Buddhists who live in the non urban areas as well as the urban areas have mainly voted for the PA-JVP alliance. The voters in the Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura districts represent this category. Then we have the Olcott Buddhists who mainly live in the urban areas in the districts of Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara and Kandy. The Olcott Buddhists have in general voted for the JHU.(For the benefit of the pundits it has to be recorded that the Sinhala Buddhists are not confined to the non urban areas and that the Olcott Buddhists could be found only in the urban areas.)
These columns have referred to the Olcott Buddhists previously. They are Buddhists first and their Sinhalaness come later. Most of them are Buddhists in the sense that they are more "international" than Sinhala. They are in a sense "rational" Buddhists and would like to compare western science with Buddhism and claim that Buddhism is scientific and rational. They usually take pride in the statements made by people such as Russell and Einstein on Buddhism. They would in general like to "exorcise" various gods in Sinhala Buddhism forgetting that most of these gods have been with the Sinhalas from the times of Yakshas and also that some gods had come with the Semi Vedic people who are symbolised by Vijaya and his men. Ven. Soma Thera addressed this group of Olcott Buddhists who had separated Buddhism from Sinhalaness. The Olcott Buddhists were more upset by the conversions of the Buddhists than by the attacks of the LTTE on the unitary state. They would have been disturbed by the slaughter of Bhikkus in Arantalawa, attacks on Dalada Maligawa and murders that took place in the vicinity of Sri Maha Bodhi than by the establishment of a federal state. The SU originally did not concentrate on this section of the Sinhala people. However, after the death of Soma Thera the opportunists in the SU realised that there was some strength in this group and overnight changed their policies to suit the Olcott Buddhists who could be found in the UNP as well as the PA, with the majority being in the former. They changed the name of the party and became another Bhoomiputhra party adopting the policies of the latter.
It is clear that among the Sinhala Buddhists there has been a swing to the PA-JVP alliance from the UNP. The UNP has lost about 15% of its vote in 2001 to the alliance. It is equivalent to a swing of about 6% of the vote. In the urban areas it has been different. The UNP in spite of the votes of the Tamils as well as the Muslims in the Colombo District that they got due to the absence of candidates from the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK) and SLMC did not fare well. A substantial UNP vote went to the JHU upsetting all the calculations of the think tank of the former party. The swing to the PA - JVP alliance was less in the urban areas as many Olcott Buddhists would not think of voting the alliance because of the JVP factor. The Sinhala Buddhists have no such apprehensions against the JVP and the swing to the alliance could be seen largely in the non urban areas. In Maharagama and Kesbewa the UNP lost so many votes that the party was confined to the third position, when the results were declared by the commissioner of elections.
The election was fought on nationalistic issues rather than on economic issues and it is clear that the Sinhala electorate has finally shifted to nationalistic policies irrespective of the monks contesting the elections. The JVP within the Sandhanaya fought on a nationalistic agenda and they have given a pledge to the people to safeguard the unitary character of the state. Whatever the intentions of the JVP and the JHU may be, it has to be realised that these two parties stood for a unitary state and together now they have about 50 MPs in the parliament. With MPs from the Sinhala Manthree Sandhanaya of the SLFP and the MEP, led by Mr. Dinesh Gunawardhane there are about 70 MPs who are openly against a federal state. If not for the stand taken by the leadership in the UNP as well as the PA this number would be much more than 100. These MPs represent a substantial portion of the voters and those who advocate to ignore them would be driven to the oblivion in the near future. Sinhala nationalism has come a long way from its nadir in 1994 when the MEP that alone stood for Sinhalathva could not win a single seat in the parliament.
The preferential vote of the alliance gives a good measure of the opinion of the electorate. Those who polled more preferential votes have been in general against a federal state. The candidates such as Chandana Kathriarachchi and Bharatha Lakshman Premechandra formerly of the Mahajana Party did not poll enough preferential votes to be elected as MPs. Ms. Kumartunga who unfortunately still follows the policies of the Mahajana Party should take note of the trends or decide to retire from politics graciously without trying to bulldoze the views of the "international community" and her so-called advisors who have no links what so ever with the common man who voted for the alliance. The voters would not tolerate the hanky panky work of the advisors who tried to come out with a second manifesto with their policies rather than the policies of the alliance.
Overall the elections were held in a peaceful environment though a few incidents have been reported. The Commissioner of Elections his staff, the IGP the Police force, the Chiefs of the Armed Forces and their staff, have to be thanked for the exemplary manner in which the polls were conducted. However in the northern province no free elections have been held and only about 30% of the people have voted. The organisations such as PFAREL that are financed by the west and so the called international monitors are silent on these matters, except to issue a lame statement on the overall situation. These so called monitors come to monitor how the Sinhala people vote and not the way the Tamils are deprived of their voting right by the LTTE. They have left it for Mr. Ananda Sangaree to fight it out with the LTTE. The LTTE with such low turn out and with Karuna dominating the Batticaloa district, cannot now claim to be the sole representative of the Tamil people. The defeat of Parajasekeram the chief LTTE representative in the ITAK, in Batticaloa district, speaks volumes for the new political situation. The political pundits may come out with bankrupt ideas on self government, homeland, etc., but these pundits as well as the theories that they echo have been rejected by the people. Incidentally what happened to the duo Vickramabahu and Vasudeva? How many votes did they poll? It is ironical that the political pundits do not refer to these redundants as extremists and to their views as minority opinion. Instead they would refer to more than 100 MPs representing a minority extreme view. The parties such as the LSSP that were opposed to the establishment of the alliance and that could not get a single MP elected have no moral right to ask for a seat on the national list. The JVP MPs and others who are against devolution of power and who represent the vast majority of the people should make sure that these spent forces and the advisors of the President, who have lost their roots in the country are left out of the decision making process.
The Sandhanaya has rejected the concept oh a Tamil homeland and even if the international community insists on peace talks the new government will find it difficult to follow the UNP to Vannni and other cities in the world to talk to the LTTE. The Sinhala people especially the Sinhala Buddhists have given a message to the government and the others including the non national forces. From now onwards the governments should not try to ignore the Sinhala people and their interests when a solution to the Tamil racist problem is sought.
Professor Nalin de Silva
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