COMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Presidential Elections would be held at the end of this year, and not in 2006 as wished by Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga and some others. The Commissioner of Elections is expected to make a statement in the second week of August on the Presidential elections. It appears that taking of oaths by Ms. Kumaratunga in 1999 soon after she won the Presidential Elections for the second time would go against any hopes of conducting the elections in 2006. The term of office of a person begins with the taking of oaths or with the assumption of duties. If a person is appointed for a six year term then the period of six years begins with the assumption of duties or taking of oaths, and that person cannot assume duties again on a later date and claim that the term began on that latter date. Whoever advised Ms. Kumaratunga should have requested her to take oaths not soon after the second Presidential Elections that she won, but after completing the first term in her office. One cannot have overlapping terms in office according to the Aristotelian two fold two valued logic. One can serve either the first term or the second term, but not both. When Ms. Kumaratunga took oaths for the second time based on the second Presidential Elections she won, not withstanding the provisions of the constitution, her first term expired and the second term began. If Ms. Kumaratunga is keen on continuing as the President until 2006, I am afraid, she would have to argue within Catuskoti or four fold two valued logic where there is a possibility of serving both the first term and the second term simultaneously. However, unfortunately the Roman Dutch Law would not consider Catuskoti as a valid logic, though western Physics would have to adopt it in the near future, to account for particles going through two distinct slits simultaneously.
The SLFP, either knowing that Presidential Elections have to be held this year or having other plans, has declared that Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse would be their Presidential candidate. They have also said that Mr. Anura Bandaranaike would be the Prime Ministerial candidate. If Mr. Rajapakse becomes the next President, then soon after Mr. Bandaranaike would become the Prime Minister. One might think that the SLFP had to declare the Prime Ministerial candidate as well, since if Mr. Rajapakse is elected as the President then the position of Prime Minister would become vacant. However, on the other hand, if Mr. Wickremesinghe is elected as the President what would happen? Though the SLFP challenges the UNP to nominate their Prime Ministerial candidate as well, there is no need for them to do so, as long as the present Parliament continues. If Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe becomes the President he can appoint the SLFP Prime Ministerial candidate Mr. Anura Bandaranaike as the Prime Minister if the latter has the support of the majority. As it is unlikely that the JVP would support a UNP member for the post of Prime Minister in preference to Mr. Bandaranaike, the UNP would have to declare its Prime Ministerial candidate only in the event of Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe becoming the President and dissolving the Parliament.
In that case too, Mr. Rajapakse would be the loser, as the selection of Mr. Bandaranaike as the Prime Ministerial candidate by the SLFP is unconditional. If Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe becomes the President and dissolves the Parliament, then Mr. Rajapakse would not be the Prime Ministerial candidate, and Mr. Bandaranaike would be the Prime Minister or the Leader of Opposition depending on whether the SLFP commands a majority or not in the new Parliament, ruling out Mr. Rajapakse as the Presidential candidate of the SLFP at elections held after the next Presidential elections. If Mr. Banadaranaike had not been declared the Prime Ministerial candidate unconditionally, Mr. Rajapakse could have been the SLFP candidate for the post of Prime Minister at the Parliamentary elections. Thus Mr. Rajapakse has to win the Presidential elections if he wants to survive in politics with power. It could be a trap set up for Mr. Rajapakse by the non national forces, and he would have to bring all the national forces together to win the elections. Ms. Kumaratunga who said just a few days ago that only certain families and certain areas in this country could produce leaders would not have changed her mind all of a sudden in favour of Ruhuna to produce a President.
It is very likely that somebody who is interested in seeing Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe becoming the President advised the Bandaranaikes to adopt the strategy of naming the Prime Ministerial candidate of the SLFP, as well. It is very probable that the Bandaranaikes would like to see Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe becoming the President and Mr. Anura Bandaranaike becoming the Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition, and the challenger of Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe at the Presidential elections to be held after 2005. Poor Mr. Rajapakse, if he does not become the President would be awarded the cup for the best loser.
After naming the Presidential and the Prime Ministerial candidates, the SLFP is thinking of changing the party constitution and making Ms. Kumaratunga the leader of the party for life. Also it appears that Ms. Kumaratunga would be leading Mr. Rajapakse's campaign at the forthcoming Presidential elections. These, if true, would work against Mr. Rajapakse. Even if he wins he would have to work with a party leader who does not see eye to eye with him in most of the matters. Would Mr. Rajapakse agree with the campaign to be spearheaded by Ms. Kumaratunga? What would be the manifesto that Ms. Kumaratunga has in her mind, and would Mr. Rajapakse agree with that? Ms. Kumaratunga would certainly try to please the Tamil racists with a confederation but whether she would spell it out is another problem. If Mr. Rajapakse does not agree with the manifesto prepared by Ms. Kumaratunga, what could he do?
Ms. Kumaratunga who broke away from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party with her husband to form the anti Sinhala Buddhist Party that was named the Mahajana Party, has no right to be the leader of the Party for life. Ironically both Ms. Kumaratunga and Mr. Anura Bandaranaike had left the SLFP at different times and worked against the party. On the other hand, Mr. Rajapakse has remained loyal to the party that his father helped to form. Ms. Kumaratunga who was brought by the non national forces from her self exile in London to lead the PA in 1992 has managed to hijack the SLFP with the support of those who helped her to become the leader of the PA, and has substituted the policies of the party of her husband for the policies of the party of her parents. She who was instrumental in signing the MoU on the PTOMS against the Sinhalathva, has to be sent back to London from where she came. The SLFP has a duty by the people of the country to go back to the policies of 1956 in time for celebrating 50 years of the famous victory of the MEP. The children of fifty six (panas haye daruwo) should get together to work out a strategy of forming the next "Sandhanaya" under the leadership of Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse.
What should be the strategy of Mr. Rajapakse to turn tables on the non national forces that include Ms. Kumaratunga, and be the next President. First and foremost he has to be free from the NGO advisors around him. The non national forces have planted some NGO paid servants to advise Mr. Rajapakse specially on the Tamil racist problem. They would be telling Mr. Rajapakse the importance of the votes of the Tamils if he wants to become the President. What Mr. Rajapakse should realise is that at the last general elections the "Sandhanaya" came to power almost solely on the Sinhala vote. The percentage of the Sinhalas in the country is around eighty at present, and the UNP has a block vote of about thirty five percent of the Sinhalas. This implies that if Mr. Rajapakse could concentrate on the floating vote he is in a position to win the balance 65% of the vote of the Sinhalas, that amounts to more than 50% of the entire vote. Mr. Rajapakse will also get a substantial percentage of the Muslim vote, specially after the MoU on PTOMS, provided of course Ms. Kumaratunga who forced the SLFP to support the MoU, is kept out of the election campaign. Even if the block vote for the UNP among the Sinhalas is 40% Mr. Rajapakse should be able to get the much needed 50% of the entire vote plus one, with the Muslim vote he can count on.
However much the NGO "pandithayas" would advise on payment from the western countries most of the Tamils are expected to vote for Mr. Wickremesinghe and not for Mr. Rajapakse. Mr. Rajapakse should address the constituency that the MEP addressed in 1956, with people such as "Sinhala Marikkar" of Kadugannawa from the Muslim community. There will always be some Tamils who want to live with the Sinhalas, led by Mr. Kadirgamar, who would vote for Mr. Rajapakse, and he could win easily, even if the JHU decides to field a candidate against him. However, it has to be emphasised that he could win only on a nationalistic manifesto and not on manifestoes prepared by Ms. Kumaratunga. Those in the SLFP who expect the downfall of Mr. Rajapakse would advise Mr. Rajapakse to adopt the policies of Ms. Kumaratunga. If Mr. Rajapakse does so the people would have no choice as the manifestoes of Mr. Wickremesinghe and Ms. Kumaratunga would not be different form each other. In such an eventuality the floating vote would be attracted by Mr. Wickremesinghe, and some of the nationalists would vote for the JHU. If Mr. Rajapakse wants to lose everything and become an ordinary MP representing the Hambantota District he is advised to adopt the manifesto that would be drafted by Ms. Kumaratunga.
This brings us to the position of the JVP. There is no alternative for the JVP at present but to support Mr. Rajapakse conditionally. There may be some pseudo nationalists who are in effect NGO funded personnel, and others who have a grudge against the SLFP, who would advise the JVP to field their own candidate, resulting in Mr. Wickremesinghe becoming the President. The JVP has to form a new "Sandhanaya" under the leadership of Mr. Rajapakse, of course after agreeing on a common manifesto. Just as much as there are people closer to the JVP who would advise the party not to form a new "Sandhanaya" there are people including leaders in the SLFP who would not tolerate the JVP. Ms. Kumaratunga who cannot be expected to be happy with Mr. Rajapakse becoming the President is all out to make sure that the JVP field their own candidate at the Presidential elections. Mr. Rajapakse can defeat all these non national forces and the others who have a grudge against the SLFP, by forming a new "Sandhanaya" under his leadership and campaigning on a nationalistic manifesto. If he does otherwise it will be the beginning of the end as far as his political life is concerned.
Professor Nalin de Silva
>
>
>