JVP - MANGALA ALLIANCE
It appears as if Mr. Anura Bandaranaike would become a minister again very soon, if he has not been appointed a minister already. However, it will not change my statement that the sacking of Mr. Bandaranaike is the best news that I heard after that of making Mr. Gladstone a persona non grata. Even if Mr. Bandaranaike is made the Prime Minister he will be a devalued Prime Minister and everybody would know that he has no power within the ministries concerned, and also within the cabinet. He will be a minister for the sake of being a minister without power or a power base. The elite politics will end, though it would not lead to an ideal democracy.
With or without Mr. Bandaranaike in the cabinet the foreign non national forces will continue to exert pressure on the government to come out with a federal solution to the so called ethnic problem. They may not apply pressure to stop the operations by the armed forces against the LTTE, as long as they could interpret them to be retaliatory measures. However, there is a likelihood that they may intervene claiming that civilians are affected or human rights are violated. Whatever they may do, it is a federal solution that they want finally, and it is to impose such solution that they will use human rights as a pretext. When the west speaks of human rights one can only contemplate on their hypocrisy. However, the threat of economic sanctions should not be forgotten, and the Rajapakse government has to ponder on how it could face up to the consequences.
Mr. Mangala Samaraweera, who has no friends in the SLFP at the moment, if at all will have to fight back on the strength of the non national forces and the JVP. It cannot be democracy that the JVP is thinking of when it supports Mr. Mangala Samaraweera against the President. The JVP instead of pressurizing the government to move forward with military action against the LTTE, is apparently waiting for the President to give up even the retaliatory measures thinking that the public would be attracted to them because of their more militant attitude towards the LTTE. However, this is only wishful thinking without taking into consideration the involvement of the foreign non national forces.
It is true that in general not only the Sinhalas but even the Tamils and the Muslims want the LTTE to be defeated. However, unlike in the case of the Sinhalas some of the others want the LTTE at least until they get their federal solution. They think that if the LTTE is defeated they would never get what they want, meaning devolution of power to the northern and the eastern provinces. However, the Federalists have learnt a new trick. They would now speak of a country where power is shared without talking of a federal state. It is amusing to listen to Mr. Choksy arguing for a country with shared power, and Dr. G. L. Peiris telling us that words such as unitary and federal have no meaning. There are definitions in the western world with which these legal pundits ate familiar with and they cannot hoodwink the Sinhalas by claiming that it is not necessary to identify the nature of the state in the constitution. Whether the constitution specifically mentions the nature if the state or not, the contents would spell it out the federal character of the state these gentlemen are thinking of. Could these legal pundits come out with an example for a state which is neither unitary nor federal? The Sinhalas are fed up with the "games" that the federalists have been playing with and Mr. Choksy would be exposed in no time, if he attempts to play games on behalf of the UNP and Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe.
In any event Mr. Sripathy Suriarachchi has become a "war monger" all of a sudden. Knowing the frame of mind of the overwhelming majority of the people, he has challenged the government to explain why the "war" is confined to the eastern province. He wants an answer to the question why the "war" is not fought in Kilinochchi. It is a good question to raise, and the government has to answer it, if it does not involve military secrets concerning tactics. However, there is a question that Mr. Suriarachchi himself to answer. Is he for carrying the "war" to Kilinochchi, and if so what action has he taken while being in the government to pressurize the government to finish the "war" by defeating the LTTE in that locality.
While Messrs. Samaraweera and Suriarachchi are playing a losing game, not due to lack of support from Mr. Anura Bandaranaike who deserted them in his characteristic way reminding us of Mr. Maithripala Senanayake and others, but due to the fact that they have no support from the public. The non national forces that give support to them are not from the soil of the land, and the only nationalistic force to extend support to them is the JVP. Mr. Samaraweera is a well known federalists who was with Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga in the "Sudu Nelum" and "Thavalama" campaigns, and if the JVP is worried about the federalists joining the government, it is difficult to understand why the party should be perturbed by the sacking of Mr. Mangala Samaraweera.
The non national forces want to see the government out, and it is not only the government that the former are concerned with. They want to defeat the national forces and it has to be realized that the struggle between the national forces and the non national forces has reached a new height after Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse became the President. The JVP true to its character is waiting for the President to give up the "war" under pressure from the western powers, so that it could become the leader of the national forces. In any event, there is no way that the JVP could give support to a well known federalist such as Mr. Mangala Samaraweera. It is true that Mr. Samaraweera was behind the "sandhanaya" between the PA and the JVP, and was instrumental in forming the "parivasa" government. It is certainly not the gratitude of the JVP to Mr. Mangala Samaraweera that has made it to fall behind him at this juncture.
If and when the western forces decide to intervene on behalf of Tamil racism that wants to deny Sinhalathva its due place in the country, and impose a federal solution, they would not only defeat Mr. Rajapakse but the national forces as well. The JVP would be spared this treatment only if they too follow the western forces. This is very unlikely and the JVP too would be massacred by the non national forces, in the process of defeating the national forces. If the JVP has any idea of becoming the leader of the national forces it would vanish into thin air as there would not be either a strong JVP or a national force to lead.
The strength of the JVP is in the "sandhanaya" together with the other national forces. It is true that there are non national forces and federalists within the "sandhanaya". However these non national forces could be defeated by the national forces within the "sandhanaya" itself. There is nobody within the "sandhanaya" who could raise his voice against the military actions against the LTTE. Mr. Mangala Samaraweera even after being sacked could murmur only about the so called violations of human rights. Outside of the "sandhanaya" the JVP is not much of a force, as revealed at the last local government elections, and if this government were to fall as a result of intervention by the non national forces, the JVP would be crushed simultaneously.
The JVP has no choice but to support the government and to defeat the federalists within the government, joining with the other national forces. It is not the federalists within the government that matters, but the continuation of the military action against the LTTE. The JVP which is prepared to support the federalist in the form of Mangala Samaraweera could use its "influence" to take him back to the government and get his support also for the continuation of military actions against the LTTE. .
Professor Nalin de Silva
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