THE AIR ATTACKS
On Saturday night or rather in the early hours of Sunday while Sri Lankans were watching the Cricket team losing to Australia, weather, and Duckworth and Lewis, some areas in the city and the suburbs were plunged into darkness. These power cuts are now becoming a regular habit with so called air attacks by the LTTE using what are known as light aircrafts. However the "air attacks" that commenced about two weeks prior to the New Year, have raised a number of questions that have to be discussed.
It is not a secret that Ranil Wickremesinghe the leader of the opposition who spends more time abroad than in the country announced that he would form a government before the New Year. Of course he has now postponed it by a few weeks and now he says that the formation of the government would be in May. The air attacks continue and the UNP is going to town with the news of the attacks implying that the government has failed to provide security. There may or may not be any connection with the air attacks and the announcement by Ranil Wickremesinghe on capturing power but it is a strange coincidence that the air attacks commenced just prior to the New Year.
The All Party Representative Committee (APRC) that had more representations from the Tamil and Muslim parties than from the Sinhala parties with Tissa Vitharana becoming the non rotating chairman tried to extract more powers to the provincial councils that go beyond the thirteenth amendment. Tissa Vitharana thought he was smart and went round the country with his proposals pretending that they are the proposals of the APRC, without mentioning that the proposals had already been totally rejected by the MEP, and not accepted by the SLFP.
The SLFP would have most probably announced its proposals on Tuesday but it is speculated that the party would settle down for district councils rather than provincial councils. However neither the western countries nor India would be happy with district councils, even with federalism, and it appears that they insist on a proposal that goes beyond the thirteenth amendment that was imposed on us by India through Dixit who thought that he was the viceroy of Sri Lanka. Incidentally the thirteenth amendment was a result of Parippu diplomacy which followed Vadamaarachchi. India that had nurtured LTTE and other armed youth misguided by the so called Federal Party or the Illankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi (Lanka Tamil State Party), in their formative days, against Sinhalathva, did not want the LTTE to be defeated and decided to drop parippu at a crucial moment during the Vadamaarachchi operation. India had used terror tactics at that stage but the then Sri Lankan government merely succumbed to pressure.
The present state is not much different from that during the Vadamaarachchi days. The LTTE is finding it difficult in the face of the retaliation attacks by the Sri Lankan armed forces, and the west and India do not want the LTTE to be defeated. At the same time the west and India want a proposal that goes beyond the thirteenth amendment and they want it before the LTTE is defeated. There is a difference in the positions of Sri Lanka and India, and it is not far fetched to assume that India would go to any extent of "Parippu diplomacy" to achieve what it wants, with obviously the help of the western countries. The period of April and May not be the Ides of March as far as the west is concerned but in Sri Lanka these are crucial months with respect to political changes. It is not for nothing that Ranil Wickremesinghe is shouting about forming a government in these months.
When the LTTE is capable of shooting at aircrafts belonging to the Sri Lankan air force the question could be asked as to why the Sri Lankan forces cannot put down these two so called light air crafts supposed to be belonging to the LTTE. Has it got anything to do with the radar system, but then does the LTTE have a radar network better than what the armed forces have? While on radars there is a talk that India prevented Sri Lanka from buying radar equipment from China. Apparently India has seen it to that radar system brought from that country has been fixed at Katunayake. Not being a person with knowledge of radar systems I am not in a position to comment on the suitability or the functioning of the radar network at Katunayake. However, like most other ordinary citizens I would not have liked it if India intervened in the process of purchasing a radar system for Sri Lanka.
Now if LTTE is in possession of light aircrafts that are used to bomb strategic places in Colombo as at present then obviously it is a threat to India as well. However, India has so far not taken any step even to condemn the action. Would it help the government of Sri Lanka to demolish the air power of the terrorists? It is unlikely as India together with the west is more concerned with the federal proposal of Tissa Vitharana and perhaps Mangala Samaraweera in time to come. India which tried to cultivate Gamini Dissanayake as its "agent" in the government may be thinking of doing the same with Mangala Samaraweera. However, space and time have changed and Mangala Samaraweera, even if he rejoins the government will be unable to do what Gamini Dissanayake did in the government of President Premdasa.
It is too early to predict the outcome of all these marriages of political convenience, and other such alliances. However, what is clear is that the government is under pressure from various quarters to give a federal solution to the so called ethnic problem. The "LTTE air attacks", whether they are the work of the LTTE or somebody else or work of the terrorists with assistance of some super power is another threat to the government. The federal lobby is finally united under united Sri Lanka slogan, and they want the SLFP either to abdicate or to give a federal solution, involving provincial councils.
Professor Nalin de Silva
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