WINNING AND LOSING IN THE SOUTH
We
have to detour from our series on Pavena Parandel to make an attempt to
understand what happened in the south on Saturday. The UPFA on paper
has secured a two third majority in the Southern Provincial Council and
has increased its vote base. The party has increased the percentages of
votes at Galle and Matara districts but appears to have failed to do so
at Hambantota the “village district” of the President. The percentages
of votes polled by the UPFA have been increased from 62 to 68 at Galle
and from 64 to 67 at Matara, compared to the votes secured by the UPFA
in 2004. However at Hambantota the percentage has decreased from about
70 to about 67. One could not attribute it to contesting this time
without the JVP, as in the other districts and the provinces the
situation was the same. It is true that if we subtract the 11% of votes
that the JVP has obtained this time from the 70% that the UPFA polled
in 2004, then the percentage of the votes secured by the UPFA has been
increased from about 59 to 67 at Hambantota. However this is true only
if we assume that in 2004 as well the JVP obtained 11% of the total
valid vote. As these percentages are bound to change it is not correct
to say that the UPFA in 2004 secured 59% of the total valid vote.
Nevertheless we could say that there has been a substantial increase in
the percentage of the votes polled by the UPFA from 2004 to 2009 even
at Hambantota.
Thus
it is fair to say that the UPFA has increased its vote as a percentage
in all the districts when compared with the Southern Provincial Council
elections held in 2004. Any increase is relative to something else and
here we have considered the increase of the UPFA vote relative to the
UPFA vote at the 2004 SPC elections in the Hambantota District. Having
worked out this relative increase one can next compare this with the
relative increases of the UPFA vote in the other districts with respect
to 2009 and the previous Provincial council elections. Then there are
others who compare the percentages obtained by the UPFA at the
provincial council elections held in 2009 in different districts and
provinces. Thus one could say that at the Uva Provincial Council
elections UPFA obtained much more than 70% of the vote but in the
Southern Provincial Council elections the party has failed to obtain
even 70% of the vote. This is not a very good comparison but Sri Lankan
politicians and the public are used to these relativities that do not
have much significance.
In
any event UPFA politicians are also responsible for the state of
affairs as during the election campaign they went on to claim that at
the Southern Provincial Council elections the Alliance would obtain a
percentage of votes more than that it obtained at the Uva provincial
council elections. In fact some prominent members of the UPFA claimed
that the Alliance would obtain more than 80% of the valid votes.
Unfortunately for them it was not the case to be and comparing with Uva
the UNP and the JVP have already claimed that the UPFA has suffered a
set back at the Southern Provincial Council elections.
Whatever
the claims and the counter claims by the politicians it is clear that
the relative increase of the UPFA vote in 2009 compared with that at
the last provincial council in the Southern Province is low than that
in respect of the Uva Province. This needs an explanation especially
with the President himself campaigning in the Southern Province which
happens to be his “gam palatha” though in Sinhala “palatha” here does
not refer to the provinces demarcated by the British colonialists
according to their whims and fancies.
I
have not made a detailed study of this problem but as a first
hypothesis it could be suggested that the UPFA during and after the
humanitarian operations against LTTE, the Tamil terrorists group, has
gained more in the traditional UNP electorates rather than in the
electorates that have been voting with the SLFP for some time. The SLFP
led UPFA had to get those extra votes from the UNP and these votes are
naturally found in the traditional UNP electorates. However, this
hypothesis if true is valid only in the overwhelmingly Sinhala
electorates and cannot be applied to electorates such as Galle in the
Galle district and electorates in the Colombo Municipality areas where
the Sinhalas are not in a overwhelming majority.
On the average the UNP
polls about 25% of the valid vote in the electorates with an
overwhelmingly Sinhala majority and it could be considered as a
national average at present in those electorates. Similarly the UPFA
draws about 75% of the votes in those electorates with plus or minus 5%
variations from electorate to electorate. The JVP cannot average more
than 4% nationally the plusses and minuses finally balancing the
numbers. Thus the shift towards the UPFA in the Uva Province that voted
traditionally with the UNP was more than that in the Southern Province
that has been considered as a bastion of the “left”.
It is clear that with the
resurgence of nationalistic feelings some kind of homogeneous national
averages have been established on the voting patterns. The UNP that
unfortunately continues to serve the interests of the western powers
against national feelings have to be satisfied with a low average. This
figure has to be compared with the overall average of about 40% that
the UNP polled prior to Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse became the President.
Unless the UPFA makes a big blunder, these figures will not change
within the next few months. The JVP that caters to a section in the
Sinhala villages that could be considered as somewhat educated will be
confined to that segment. As the vociferous elements in the Arts
oriented faculties of the Universities are attracted from this segment
of the population the JVP would be able to come to power in these
faculties and also in the illegal body called the Inter University
Student Federation. However, dissociated from the SLFP led UPFA the JVP
will have no say in the national politics for some time to come. It is
time they thought about changing their tactics to become a force in the
national arena.
It is very likely that
the government would go for a general election very early in the coming
year. However it is not clear that the UPFA will obtain a two third
majority in the next Parliament as it depend on a few factors including
the way the Tamils and the Muslims vote. The majority of the Eastern
Province Tamils and some Muslims are expected to vote with the UPFA but
the chances are that the majority of the Muslims will vote for the
SLMC. In the Northern Province most probably the majority of the Tamils
will vote with the TNA. The up country Tamils will most probably vote
for the UPFA but the majority of Tamils and the Muslims in the other
areas are likely to vote for the UNP. The JVP will be reduced to an
also ran party and their influence in the next Parliament will be
absolutely minimal. The UPFA will have to work hard to obtain the two
third majority in the next Parliament, as they are still behind poling
a national average of around 80% of the valid vote in the electorates
with an overwhelming Sinhala majority. However, with the bonus seats,
national list and seats for the remainder (kote in popular Sinhala) in
the districts the UPFA has an outside chance of obtaining the two third
majority even with their present achievements.
Professor
Nalin de Silva
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